27
Sep
All Eyes on October
In a week of mostly lower prices for the major asset classes, a broad measure of commodities bucked the trend with a solid gain, based on a set of ETFs for the trading week ended Friday, Sep. 24.
The equal-weighted WisdomTree Continuous Commodity Index Fund (NYSE:GCC) rose 1.3% last week. Despite the latest gain, GCC continues to trade in a range and the latest pop doesn’t alter the outlook for more of the same in the near term.
Here are the key market moving factors for the week:
The US
- The US releases third-quarter GDP later this week, but the forecast is much more positive, with a forecast of 6.6%. This would be a repeat of growth in Q2 and would signal that the recovery is continuing at a brisk clip. A strong GDP release will increase expectations that the Federal Reserve will hit the taper button by December, which could give the US dollar a boost.
- The US reports the preliminary estimate for August durable goods today. Transportation orders likely helped lift the headline after a 0.1% decline in July. However, excluding transportation (53 orders for Boeing (NYSE:BA) in August after 31 in July), the pace of durable goods orders may have slowed to 0.5% from 0.8%. Tomorrow, the US reports trade, house prices, and the Conference Board’s (September) consumer confidence. Three Fed officials (Evans, Williams, and Brainard) speak today.
- Powell and Yellen testify before the Senate Banking Committee tomorrow. Canada has a light week, and the highlight is Friday’s estimate of July GDP and the Markit manufacturing PMI. Mexico reports the August trade balance (deficit) today and unemployment tomorrow. Banxico makes its rate decision on Thursday, and all 16 respondents in the Bloomberg survey look for another 25 bp rate hike. September worker remittances and the manufacturing PMI will be reported ahead of the weekend.
The UK
- The UK government is to suspend competition laws between oil firms to help get fuel to the parts of the country suffering most from the petrol shortage. Over the weekend long lines of traffic blocked UK roads as drivers queued to buy petrol before forecourts ran out of fuel, sparking fears that the supply chains may suffer further, dampening UK growth prospects. The government also announced that it would issue around 5,000 temporary visas for foreign lorry drivers to help ease the problem although this looks like a case of ‘after the horse has bolted’ as companies suffer across the country.
- The latest ONS covid-19 data continue to show the number of new cases and fatalities rising on a weekly basis despite the high numbers of one and two case vaccinations. Nearly 90% of the population over the age of 16 have had one vaccination dose, while just over 82% have had two shots.
Europe
- A bit more than two weeks ago, European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde insisted, “the lady is not for tapering.” It was the ECB chief’s attempt at easing trader nerves. In plain language, in an effort to keep regional markets stable and not harm the euro, Lagarde was simply saying, ‘don’t worry, I will keep giving you free money, and to the same extent.’
- But the ECB is starting to lag peer central banks which have begun to at least eye the path of tightening if not to have already started the process. The US Fed has already indicated it may trim its bond buying program this year and raise rates in 2022. The Bank of England could start increasing interest rates as early as this year.
AUSTRALIA
- Concerns that the economy will record negative growth in the third quarter could increase after Retail Sales for August is released on Tuesday. The forecasts range from -1.5% to -4.0%, with the Australian Bureau of Statistics projecting a decline of 2.0%. Retail Sales accounts for some 60% of domestic growth, and the release could signal a dismal September GDP reading. Negative readings from retail sales or GDP will likely sour sentiment towards the Australian dollar.
JAPAN
- Gold futures edged lower Monday morning, retreating somewhat in the final week of September as yields climbed and investors continued to react to the Federal Reserve’s signaling that it will taper purchases of billions in government debt and mortgage-related bonds as the U.S. economy recovers from COVID.
- December gold GCZ21, -0.13% GC00, -0.13% was trading $2.60, or 0.1%, to touch $1,749.20 an ounce, following a weekly gain for bullion of 30 cents or less than 0.1%. Meanwhile, silver for September delivery SIZ21, +0.85% was up 15 cents, or 0.2%, at $22.58 an ounce, after gold’s sister metal posted a 0.4% weekly rise on Friday
CHINA
- China’s “cultural revolution” may be turning to finance. Reports suggest the anti-corruption campaign will start “routine” inspections fo 25 financial institutions, including the four large asset managers, including Huarong. The focus reportedly is on “political awareness gaps.” Separately, the energy crisis is broadening. Households in several northern areas have suffered blackouts, and reports claim traffic lights were being turned off in Guangdong. Some provinces have orders industrial cuts to meet emissions and energy-use goals. For others, there is a genuine lack of electricity due to rising coal and natural gas prices. This could further weaken output measures of the world’s second-largest economy and could excite price pressures.
Market Overview:
Gold
- Gold futures edged lower Monday morning, retreating somewhat in the final week of September as yields climbed and investors continued to react to the Federal Reserve’s signaling that it will taper purchases of billions in government debt and mortgage-related bonds as the U.S. economy recovers from COVID.
- December gold GCZ21, -0.13% GC00, -0.13% was trading $2.60, or 0.1%, to touch $1,749.20 an ounce, following a weekly gain for bullion of 30 cents or less than 0.1%. Meanwhile, silver for September delivery SIZ21, +0.85% was up 15 cents, or 0.2%, at $22.58 an ounce, after gold’s sister metal posted a 0.4% weekly rise on Friday.
Oil
- Oil prices rose for a fifth straight day on Monday amid what had become fashionable to call “supply tightness,” as a partial squeeze on US production from a month-old hurricane led to excessive buying in futures of both crude and natural gas.
Below are the major market moving events for the week:
|
Monday, Sep 27, 2021
|
|||||||||
|
Sep 27, 11:05
|
 |
JPY | BoJ Gov Kuroda Speech |
MEDIUM
|
|||||
|
Sep 27, 15:30
|
|
EUR | Unemployment Benefit Claims (Aug) |
MEDIUM
|
-57.8K |
-44K
|
-51.1K | ||
|
Sep 27, 17:15
|
|
EUR | ECB President Lagarde Speech |
MEDIUM
|
|||||
|
Sep 27, 17:30
|
|
USD | Fed Evans Speech |
MEDIUM
|
|||||
|
Sep 27, 18:00
|
|
USD | Durable Goods Orders ex Defense MoM (Aug) |
HIGH
|
-0.5% |
0.3%
|
2.4% | ||
|
Sep 27, 18:00
|
|
USD | Durable Goods Orders Ex Transp MoM (Aug) |
HIGH
|
0.8% |
0.5%
|
0.2% | ||
|
Sep 27, 18:00
|
|
USD | Durable Goods Orders MoM (Aug) |
HIGH
|
0.5% |
0.7%
|
1.8% | ||
|
Sep 27, 20:00
|
|
USD | Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index (Sep) |
MEDIUM
|
9 |
11
|
4.6 | ||
|
Sep 27, 20:30
|
|
GBP | BoE Gov Bailey Speech |
MEDIUM
|
|||||
|
Sep 27, 21:30
|
|
USD | Fed Williams Speech |
MEDIUM
|
|||||
|
Sep 27, 22:20
|
|
USD | Fed Brainard Speech |
MEDIUM
|
|||||
|
Tuesday, Sep 28, 2021
|
|||||||||
|
Sep 28, 05:20
|
4h 6min
|
|
JPY | BoJ Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes |
MEDIUM
|
||||
|
Sep 28, 07:00
|
5h 46min
|
|
AUD | Retail Sales MoM (Aug) |
MEDIUM
|
-2.7% |
-2%
|
||
|
Sep 28, 11:30
|
10h 16min
|
|
EUR | GfK Consumer Confidence (Oct) |
HIGH
|
-1.2 |
-1.6
|
||
|
Sep 28, 12:15
|
11h 1min
|
|
EUR | Consumer Confidence (Sep) |
MEDIUM
|
99 |
100
|
||
|
Sep 28, 13:30
|
12h 16min
|
|
EUR | Bank Austria Manufacturing PMI (Sep) |
HIGH
|
61.8 |
60.3
|
||
|
Sep 28, 13:30
|
12h 16min
|
|
EUR | ECB Forum on Central Banking |
MEDIUM
|
||||
|
Sep 28, 17:30
|
16h 16min
|
|
EUR | ECB President Lagarde Speech |
MEDIUM
|
||||
|
Sep 28, 18:00
|
16h 46min
|
|
USD | Goods Trade Balance (Aug) |
HIGH
|
-$86.38B |
-$85B
|
||
|
Sep 28, 18:00
|
16h 46min
|
|
USD | Wholesale Inventories MoM (Aug) |
MEDIUM
|
0.6% |
0.4%
|
||
|
Sep 28, 18:30
|
17h 16min
|
|
USD | S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price YoY (Jul) |
MEDIUM
|
19.1% |
20%
|
||
|
Sep 28, 18:30
|
17h 16min
|
|
USD | S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price MoM (Jul) |
MEDIUM
|
2% |
1.3%
|
||
|
Sep 28, 19:30
|
18h 16min
|
|
USD | CB Consumer Confidence (Sep) |
MEDIUM
|
113.8 |
114.5
|
||
|
Sep 28, 19:30
|
18h 16min
|
|
USD | Fed Chair Powell Testimony |
HIGH
|
||||
|
Sep 28, 23:10
|
21h 56min
|
|
USD | Fed Bowman Speech |
MEDIUM
|
||||
|
Wednesday, Sep 29, 2021
|
|||||||||
|
Sep 29, 00:30
|
23h 16min
|
|
USD | Fed Bostic Speech |
MEDIUM
|
||||
|
Sep 29, 02:00
|
1 day
|
|
USD | API Crude Oil Stock Change (24/Sep) |
MEDIUM
|
-6.108M | |||
|
Sep 29, 13:30
|
1 day
|
|
EUR | ECB Forum on Central Banking |
MEDIUM
|
||||
|
Sep 29, 14:00
|
1 day
|
|
GBP | Mortgage Approvals (Aug) |
MEDIUM
|
75.2K |
73K
|
||
|
Sep 29, 14:00
|
1 day
|
|
GBP | Mortgage Lending (Aug) |
MEDIUM
|
-£1.4B |
£3.676B
|
||
|
Sep 29, 14:00
|
1 day
|
|
GBP | BoE Consumer Credit (Aug) |
MEDIUM
|
-£0.042B |
£0.3B
|
||
|
Sep 29, 14:30
|
1 day
|
|
EUR | Consumer Confidence (Sep) |
MEDIUM
|
-5.3 |
-4
|
||
|
Sep 29, 14:30
|
1 day
|
|
EUR | Economic Sentiment (Sep) |
MEDIUM
|
117.5 |
116.9
|
||
|
Sep 29, 16:30
|
1 day
|
|
EUR | Business Confidence (Sep) |
MEDIUM
|
1.2 |
1
|
||
|
Sep 29, 18:30
|
1 day
|
|
USD | Fed Harker Speech |
MEDIUM
|
||||
|
Sep 29, 19:30
|
1 day
|
|
USD | Pending Home Sales YoY (Aug) |
MEDIUM
|
-8.5% |
-6%
|
||
|
Sep 29, 19:30
|
1 day
|
|
USD | Pending Home Sales MoM (Aug) |
MEDIUM
|
-1.8% |
1.4%
|
||
|
Sep 29, 20:00
|
1 day
|
|
USD | EIA Gasoline Stocks Change (24/Sep) |
MEDIUM
|
3.475M |
1.233M
|
||
|
Sep 29, 20:00
|
1 day
|
|
USD | EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change (24/Sep) |
MEDIUM
|
-3.481M |
-2.333M
|
||
|
Sep 29, 20:15
|
1 day
|
|
USD | Fed Chair Powell Speech |
HIGH
|
||||
|
Sep 29, 21:15
|
1 day
|
|
EUR | ECB President Lagarde Speech |
MEDIUM
|
||||
|
Sep 29, 21:15
|
1 day
|
|
GBP | BoE Gov Bailey Speech |
MEDIUM
|
||||
|
Thursday, Sep 30, 2021
|
|||||||||
|
Sep 30, 05:20
|
2 days
|
|
JPY | Retail Sales YoY (Aug) |
MEDIUM
|
2.4% |
-1%
|
||
|
Sep 30, 05:20
|
2 days
|
|
JPY | Industrial Production MoM (Aug) |
MEDIUM
|
-1.5% |
-0.5%
|
||
|
Sep 30, 06:30
|
2 days
|
|
CNY | Non Manufacturing PMI (Sep) |
HIGH
|
47.5 |
50
|
||
|
Sep 30, 06:30
|
2 days
|
|
CNY | NBS Manufacturing PMI (Sep) |
HIGH
|
50.1 |
50.1
|
||
|
Sep 30, 07:00
|
2 days
|
|
AUD | Building Permits MoM (Aug) |
MEDIUM
|
-8.6% |
-5%
|
||
|
Sep 30, 07:15
|
2 days
|
|
CNY | Caixin Manufacturing PMI (Sep) |
HIGH
|
49.2 |
49.5
|
||
|
Sep 30, 10:30
|
2 days
|
|
JPY | Housing Starts YoY (Aug) |
MEDIUM
|
9.9% |
9.5%
|
||
|
Sep 30, 11:30
|
2 days
|
|
EUR | Unemployment Rate Harmonised (Aug) |
HIGH
|
3.6% |
3.6%
|
||
|
Sep 30, 11:30
|
2 days
|
|
GBP | Nationwide Housing Prices YoY (Sep) |
MEDIUM
|
11% |
10.7%
|
||
|
Sep 30, 11:30
|
2 days
|
|
GBP | Nationwide Housing Prices MoM (Sep) |
MEDIUM
|
2.1% |
0.6%
|
||
|
Sep 30, 11:30
|
2 days
|
|
GBP | Current Account (Q2) |
MEDIUM
|
-£12.8B |
-£15.573B
|
||
|
Sep 30, 11:30
|
2 days
|
|
GBP | Business Investment QoQ (Q2) |
MEDIUM
|
-10.7% |
2.4%
|
||
|
Sep 30, 11:30
|
2 days
|
|
GBP | Business Investment YoY (Q2) |
MEDIUM
|
-16.9% |
9.7%
|
||
|
Sep 30, 11:30
|
2 days
|
|
GBP | GDP Growth Rate QoQ (Q2) |
MEDIUM
|
-1.6% |
4.8%
|
||
|
Sep 30, 11:30
|
2 days
|
|
GBP | GDP Growth Rate YoY (Q2) |
MEDIUM
|
-6.1% |
22.2%
|
||
|
Sep 30, 12:15
|
2 days
|
|
EUR | Inflation Rate YoY (Sep) |
MEDIUM
|
1.9% |
2.2%
|
||
|
Sep 30, 12:30
|
2 days
|
|
EUR | Retail Sales YoY (Aug) |
HIGH
|
0.1% |
0.9%
|
||
|
Sep 30, 12:30
|
2 days
|
|
EUR | Retail Sales MoM (Aug) |
HIGH
|
0.1% |
-0.6%
|
||
|
Sep 30, 12:30
|
2 days
|
|
CHF | KOF Leading Indicators (Sep) |
HIGH
|
113.5 |
110
|
||
|
Sep 30, 12:40
|
2 days
|
|
JPY | BoJ Gov Kuroda Speech |
MEDIUM
|
||||
|
Sep 30, 13:25
|
2 days
|
|
EUR | Unemployment Change (Sep) |
HIGH
|
-53K |
-33K
|
||
|
Sep 30, 13:25
|
2 days
|
|
EUR | Unemployment Rate (Sep) |
HIGH
|
5.5% |
5.4%
|
||
|
Sep 30, 13:30
|
2 days
|
|
EUR | Unemployment Rate (Aug) |
HIGH
|
9.3% |
9.2%
|
||
|
Sep 30, 14:30
|
2 days
|
|
EUR | Unemployment Rate (Aug) |
HIGH
|
7.6% |
7.5%
|
||
|
Sep 30, 14:30
|
2 days
|
|
EUR | Retail Sales YoY (Jul) |
HIGH
|
10.8% |
7.5%
|
||
|
Sep 30, 14:30
|
2 days
|
|
EUR | Inflation Rate YoY (Sep) |
MEDIUM
|
2% |
2.4%
|
||
|
Sep 30, 17:30
|
2 days
|
|
EUR | Inflation Rate YoY (Sep) |
MEDIUM
|
3.9% |
4.2%
|
||
|
Sep 30, 18:00
|
2 days
|
|
USD | GDP Price Index QoQ (Q2) |
MEDIUM
|
4.3% |
6.1%
|
||
|
Sep 30, 18:00
|
2 days
|
|
USD | Corporate Profits QoQ (Q2) |
MEDIUM
|
4.5% |
9.7%
|
||
|
Sep 30, 18:00
|
2 days
|
|
USD | GDP Growth Rate QoQ (Q2) |
MEDIUM
|
6.3% |
6.6%
|
||
|
Sep 30, 18:00
|
2 days
|
|
USD | Initial Jobless Claims (25/Sep) |
HIGH
|
351K |
335K
|
||
|
Sep 30, 18:00
|
2 days
|
|
USD | Jobless Claims 4-week Average (Sep/25) |
HIGH
|
335.75K |
332K
|
||
|
Sep 30, 18:00
|
2 days
|
|
USD | Continuing Jobless Claims (18/Sep) |
HIGH
|
2845K |
2800K
|
||
|
Sep 30, 19:15
|
2 days
|
|
USD | Chicago PMI (Sep) |
MEDIUM
|
66.8 |
65
|
||
|
Sep 30, 19:30
|
2 days
|
|
USD | Fed Williams Speech |
MEDIUM
|
||||
|
Sep 30, 20:30
|
2 days
|
|
USD | Fed Bostic Speech |
MEDIUM
|
||||
|
Sep 30, 21:00
|
2 days
|
|
USD | Fed Harker Speech |
MEDIUM
|
||||
|
Friday, Oct 01, 2021
|
|||||||||
|
Oct 01, 04:00
|
3 days
|
|
AUD | Ai Group Manufacturing Index (Sep) |
MEDIUM
|
51.6 |
54
|
||
|
Oct 01, 04:30
|
3 days
|
|
AUD | Markit Manufacturing PMI (Sep) |
HIGH
|
52 |
57.3
|
||
|
Oct 01, 05:00
|
3 days
|
|
JPY | Unemployment Rate (Aug) |
MEDIUM
|
2.8% |
2.9%
|
||
|
Oct 01, 05:20
|
3 days
|
|
JPY | Tankan Large Manufacturers Index (Q3) |
HIGH
|
14 |
13
|
||
|
Oct 01, 05:20
|
3 days
|
|
JPY | BoJ Summary of Opinions |
MEDIUM
|
||||
|
Oct 01, 06:00
|
3 days
|
|
JPY | Jibun Bank Manufacturing PMI (Sep) |
MEDIUM
|
52.7 |
51.2
|
||
|
Oct 01, 06:00
|
3 days
|
|
AUD | Home Loans MoM (Aug) |
MEDIUM
|
-0.4% |
-2%
|
||
|
Oct 01, 10:30
|
3 days
|
|
JPY | Consumer Confidence (Sep) |
HIGH
|
36.7 |
37
|
||
|
Oct 01, 11:30
|
3 days
|
|
EUR | Retail Sales MoM (Aug) |
HIGH
|
-5.1% |
1.5%
|
||
|
Oct 01, 11:30
|
3 days
|
|
EUR | Retail Sales YoY (Aug) |
HIGH
|
-0.3% |
1.9%
|
||
|
Oct 01, 12:45
|
3 days
|
|
EUR | Markit Manufacturing PMI (Sep) |
HIGH
|
59.5 |
58.2
|
||
|
Oct 01, 13:00
|
3 days
|
|
CHF | procure.ch Manufacturing PMI (Sep) |
HIGH
|
67.7 |
65.5
|
||
|
Oct 01, 13:15
|
3 days
|
|
EUR | IHS Markit Manufacturing PMI (Sep) |
HIGH
|
60.9 |
59.4
|
||
|
Oct 01, 13:20
|
3 days
|
|
EUR | Markit Manufacturing PMI (Sep) |
MEDIUM
|
57.5 |
55.2
|
||
|
Oct 01, 13:25
|
3 days
|
|
EUR | Markit Manufacturing PMI (Sep) |
HIGH
|
62.6 |
58.5
|
||
|
Oct 01, 13:30
|
3 days
|
|
EUR | Unemployment Rate (Sep) |
HIGH
|
6.9% |
6.9%
|
||
|
Oct 01, 13:30
|
3 days
|
|
EUR | Markit Manufacturing PMI (Sep) |
HIGH
|
61.4 |
58.7
|
||
|
Oct 01, 13:30
|
3 days
|
|
EUR | Markit Manufacturing PMI (Sep) |
HIGH
|
59.3 |
58.5
|
||
|
Oct 01, 14:00
|
3 days
|
|
GBP | Markit/CIPS Manufacturing PMI (Sep) |
HIGH
|
60.3 |
56.3
|
||
|
Oct 01, 14:30
|
3 days
|
|
EUR | Core Inflation Rate YoY (Sep) |
MEDIUM
|
1.6% |
1.9%
|
||
|
Oct 01, 14:30
|
3 days
|
|
EUR | Inflation Rate YoY (Sep) |
MEDIUM
|
3% |
3.3%
|
||
|
Oct 01, 14:30
|
3 days
|
|
EUR | Inflation Rate MoM (Sep) |
MEDIUM
|
0.4% |
0.2%
|
||
|
Oct 01, 18:00
|
3 days
|
|
CAD | GDP MoM (Jul) |
MEDIUM
|
0.7% |
-0.2%
|
||
|
Oct 01, 18:00
|
3 days
|
|
USD | PCE Price Index MoM (Aug) |
MEDIUM
|
0.4% |
0.3%
|
||
|
Oct 01, 18:00
|
3 days
|
|
USD | PCE Price Index YoY (Aug) |
MEDIUM
|
4.2% |
4.2%
|
||
|
Oct 01, 18:00
|
3 days
|
|
USD | Personal Spending MoM (Aug) |
HIGH
|
0.3% |
0.6%
|
||
|
Oct 01, 18:00
|
3 days
|
|
USD | Personal Income MoM (Aug) |
HIGH
|
1.1% |
0.3%
|
||
|
Oct 01, 19:00
|
3 days
|
|
CAD | Markit Manufacturing PMI (Sep) |
HIGH
|
57.2 |
56.5
|
||
|
Oct 01, 19:15
|
3 days
|
|
USD | Markit Manufacturing PMI (Sep) |
HIGH
|
61.1 |
60.5
|
||
|
Oct 01, 19:30
|
3 days
|
|
USD | Michigan Current Conditions (Sep) |
MEDIUM
|
78.5 |
77.1
|
||
|
Oct 01, 19:30
|
3 days
|
|
USD | Michigan Consumer Expectations (Sep) |
MEDIUM
|
65.1 |
67.1
|
||
|
Oct 01, 19:30
|
3 days
|
|
USD | Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Sep) |
HIGH
|
70.3 |
71
|
||
|
Oct 01, 19:30
|
3 days
|
|
USD | Michigan Inflation Expectations (Sep) |
MEDIUM
|
4.6% |
4.7%
|
||
|
Oct 01, 19:30
|
3 days
|
|
USD | Michigan 5 Year Inflation Expectations (Sep) |
MEDIUM
|
2.9% |
2.9%
|
||
|
Oct 01, 19:30
|
3 days
|
|
USD | Construction Spending MoM (Aug) |
MEDIUM
|
0.3% |
0.3%
|
||
|
Oct 01, 19:30
|
3 days
|
|
USD | ISM Manufacturing PMI (Sep) |
HIGH
|
59.9 |
59.6
|
||
|
Oct 01, 22:30
|
3 days
|
|
USD | Fed Harker Speech |
MEDIUM
|
||||
Based on the above factors and the events lined up for the week, the analyst at RvR Ventures suggests you to Trade responsibly; invest only as much as you can lose. All the profits and losses due to the above data are your own personal responsibility. Kindly practice money management & risk mitigation while trading.
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